Executive overview

Recommended Pool Card

One place for the recommended roster, group-stage picks, data freshness, model assumptions, and uncertainty bands.

Mixed Data

5 live providers configured

Mixed Data

Live API credentials are configured. Squads, fixtures, and odds are live where the provider has published data; unavailable fixture player stats remain pending until match windows.

Roster EV

240.0

Risk-adjusted expected pool points

Median outcome

240.0

Monte Carlo roster distribution

Group-stage picks

72

All published Group A-L fixtures

Data health

Mixed

1 provider warning

Roster recommendation

Optimized player set under roster size, position, country, and risk constraints.

Mixed Data

Roster distribution

Outcome band from the selected player estimates and risk profile.

Roster points

Re-run in Simulation Lab after changing model weights or risk assumptions.

Mexico vs South Africa

High

Recommended pick

Mexico

Score 2-0

13.3% exact

Home67%

Draw22%

Away11%

22.02 expected pts

Live odds

20.02 outcome pts

33% upset risk

Consensus no-vig market probability favors Mexico; score lean 2-0; draw risk is 21.9%.

South Korea vs Czech Republic

Speculative

Recommended pick

South Korea

Score 1-0

6.0% exact

Home35%

Draw31%

Away34%

11.47 expected pts

Live odds

10.57 outcome pts

65% upset risk

Consensus no-vig market probability favors South Korea; score lean 1-0; draw risk is 30.9%.

Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Medium

Recommended pick

Canada

Score 2-1

9.5% exact

Home53%

Draw27%

Away20%

17.30 expected pts

Live odds

15.87 outcome pts

47% upset risk

Consensus no-vig market probability favors Canada; score lean 2-1; draw risk is 26.8%.

Group-stage picks

No-vig probabilities converted into office-pool expected value for Groups A-L.